Canada vs Morocco Prediction. Co-hosts Canada face a Morocco side still unbeaten at World Cup 2026 in the Round of 16 at NRG Stadium, Houston on Saturday, 5 July 2026 (17:00 UTC / 20:00 EAT). Davies expected to start after coming off the bench vs South Africa. Saibari — newly confirmed as a Bayern Munich signing — scored the decisive penalty vs the Netherlands. Our prediction: Morocco to win. Full analysis, team news, line-ups and all markets on SportPesa.
Match details
| Field | Detail |
| Competition | 2026 FIFA World Cup — Round of 16 |
| Date & kick-off | Saturday, 5 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC / 20:00 EAT |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas, USA |
| How they got here | Canada: beat South Africa 1-0 (Eustaquio 92’) in the R32. Morocco: drew Netherlands 1-1 AET, beat Netherlands 3-2 on penalties (Saibari scored decisive spot-kick). |
| Format | Single elimination. If level after 90 mins: 30 mins extra time, then penalty shoot-out. |
| Where to watch | DSTV/GOTV |
Canada’s giant-killing ambition vs Morocco’s African pedigree
Canada’s Round of 16 appearance is the biggest moment in the country’s football history. After qualifying for the tournament as co-hosts and progressing from the group stage for the first time, Jesse Marsch’s side edged past South Africa in the R32 through a dramatic 92nd-minute goal from Stephen Eustaquio. They have won two of their last three matches in Houston and will look to draw on home support once again.
The headline selection news is Alphonso Davies. The Bayern Munich left-back came off the bench against South Africa for his first appearance of the tournament after a minor hamstring issue kept him out of the group stage. He is now expected to start and could be a game-changing presence if he finds his best form. Jonathan David, who scored a hat-trick in the 6-1 win over Qatar during the group stage, and Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi continue to partner up front. Eustaquio retains his midfield role alongside Nathan Saliba, with Tajon Buchanan threatening from the right flank.
Morocco’s knockout performance against the Netherlands was extraordinary. Drawing 1-1 after extra time, the Atlas Lions held their nerve in the penalty shootout, with Ismail Saibari scoring the decisive spot-kick. It was a fitting moment for a player whose transfer to Bayern Munich was confirmed this week — and who has scored in every game he has played at this World Cup. Morocco remain unbeaten across all their 2026 World Cup matches and have now progressed from six of their last eight knockout ties at major tournaments.
Captain Achraf Hakimi has three goal involvements in the tournament and leads a settled, unchanged lineup. Azzedine Ounahi and Brahim Díaz provide the creative midfield platform behind Saibari’s forward runs. Morocco’s 2022 semi-final run — eliminating Spain and Portugal along the way — established them as a genuine knockout threat, and this squad carries the same belief.
Team news
Canada: Davies expected to start — confirm. David and Oluwaseyi up front. Eustaquio retains midfield role. Buchanan wide right.
Morocco: Unchanged XI expected. Saibari starts after decisive penalty and every-game scoring record. Hakimi captains. Ounahi and Brahim Díaz in midfield.
| Canada (4-3-3 expected) | Morocco (4-3-3 expected) |
| Crépeau (GK) | Bounou (GK) |
| Johnston (RB) | Hakimi (RB) |
| Cornelius (CB) | Aguerd (CB) |
| De Fougerolles (CB) | Saiss (CB) |
| Davies (LB) | Mazraoui (LB) |
| Eustaquio (DM) | El Khannous (DM) |
| Saliba (CM) | Ounahi (CM) |
| Ali Ahmed (CM) | Brahim Díaz (AM) |
| Buchanan (RW) | Adingra (RW) |
| David (ST) | Saibari (LW) |
| Oluwaseyi (LW) | Mmaee (ST) |
Key stats
- Canada: R32 result — beat South Africa 1-0 (Eustaquio 92’). Canada’s first-ever World Cup knockout win.
- Canada: co-hosts. Third World Cup appearance (1986, 2022, 2026).
- Alphonso Davies: expected to start after coming off the bench vs South Africa. First potential start of the tournament.
- Jonathan David: scored a hat-trick in the 6-1 group stage win over Qatar.
- Stephen Eustaquio: 92nd-minute winner vs South Africa. Retains midfield role.
- Canada form: W L W D D — lost only once in last 5.
- Morocco: R32 result — drew Netherlands 1-1 AET, beat Netherlands 3-2 on penalties (Saibari decisive penalty).
- Morocco: still unbeaten at World Cup 2026 across all matches.
- Morocco: progressed from 6 of last 8 knockout ties at major tournaments.
- Ismail Saibari: scored in every game played at World Cup 2026. Newly confirmed as Bayern Munich signing.
- Achraf Hakimi: 3 goal involvements in the tournament.
- Morocco: 2022 semi-finalists — first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final.
- Morocco form: W W W D D — unbeaten in last 9 matches.
- H2H: Morocco W2 Canada W0 (December 2022 friendly 1-2, October 2016 friendly 4-0).
Head-to-head
Morocco have won both previous meetings with Canada. The most recent was a 2-1 Morocco win in a December 2022 friendly. Morocco also won 4-0 in an October 2016 friendly encounter. Canada have never beaten Morocco.
| Date | Result |
| December 2022 | Canada 1–2 Morocco (International Friendly) |
| October 2016 | Morocco 4–0 Canada (International Friendly) |
Current form
| Team | Last 5 (inc. WC) |
| Canada | W L W D D — beat South Africa 1-0 in R32 |
| Morocco | W W W D D — unbeaten in 9; beat Netherlands on penalties in R32 |
Our prediction
Canada have exceeded expectations to reach this stage and the return of Davies from the start gives them a genuine additional attacking weapon. David’s finishing ability and Eustaquio’s midfield presence mean they are not pushovers.
But Morocco have quality and experience in every area. Saibari’s form, Hakimi’s attacking presence, Brahim Díaz’s creativity and the organisational authority of Regragui’s setup give them the tools to control this match. Their 2022 semi-final record and the history of progressing in knockout football make them the clear analytical favourites.
Our prediction: Morocco to win.
Odds and markets
Odds correct at 2000 hrs UTC on 04/07/2026 and subject to change.
How to bet on SportPesa
- Open the Canada vs Morocco event page on SportPesa (link above).
- Choose your market — Single Bet (SB), Multi-Bet (MB), or Live Bet (LB) once the match starts.
- Enter your stake and place your bet.
Frequently asked questions
What time does Canada vs Morocco kick off?
Kick-off is at 17:00 UTC / 20:00 EAT on Saturday, 5 July 2026, at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas, USA.
Is Alphonso Davies playing for Canada vs Morocco?
Davies came off the bench against South Africa in the Round of 32 for his first appearance of the tournament after recovering from a minor hamstring injury. He is expected to start against Morocco. Confirm in the official team announcement before kick-off.
How did Morocco beat the Netherlands?
Morocco drew 1-1 with the Netherlands after extra time in the Round of 32. They then won the penalty shootout 3-2, with Ismail Saibari scoring the decisive spot-kick. Saibari had also scored in every group stage match he played.
Who is Ismail Saibari?
Ismail Saibari is a Morocco forward who has scored in every game he has played at this World Cup. His transfer to Bayern Munich was also confirmed this week, adding an additional storyline heading into this Round of 16 fixture.
Have Canada and Morocco played before?
Yes, twice, both in international friendlies. Morocco won 2-1 in December 2022 and 4-0 in October 2016. Canada have never beaten Morocco.
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